According to the results of analyzes and forecasting of the IFCN analytical platform, two scenarios of the current crisis in the global dairy industry are possible, based on the general form of the average price chart for stock dairy products: V-shaped and U-shaped scenarios. The crisis of 2009 was taken as the zero point.
This was reported by IFCN analysts during an international webinar for the rapid exchange of information on the state of the global dairy market, reports APM.
The V-shaped scenario assumes that the supply of raw milk will quickly respond to a decrease in demand, while the reduction in demand will be comparable to the period of 2009.
The U-shaped scenario – by the way, more likely – assumes that the milk supply will be strengthened (+ 1-1.5%) and similar to the current one, but demand growth will be higher than in 2009. In support of the realism of the second scenario, experts cite updated data on the situation with milk production in the world, which from January to April grew by 2.3% compared to last year.
According to updated information, IFCN leaves its forecasts for world milk prices at the end of this year at 32 $ / 100 kg.
In the 2-4 quarter, the average milk price in the EU is expected to be $ 28.9 / 100 kg, in the US – $ 28.0 / 100 kg, in New Zealand – $ 33.3 / 100 kg.
According to the results of an express survey of webinar participants regarding a fall in the price of raw milk in April compared with February, it was found that in most countries, in particular EU members, the decline did not exceed 5%. The same situation is in Ukraine. Although the United States, Brazil and India have reported price reductions of more than 15%.
The results of an online survey among the countries participating in the webinar regarding the difference in the price of raw milk in April versus February 2020.
Results of an online survey among countries participating in the webinar regarding the difference in the price of raw milk in April versus February 2020
According to the results of the first quarter, China increased its imports of dairy products by 3.4% in terms of the dairy equivalent compared to last year. Most of all, imports of oil -> 100% and cheese -> 25% increased, which blocked the decline in imports of COM by 16%. Of course, this is a positive signal for the markets.
However, on the other hand, Russia, reducing consumption against the background of increasing milk production, is changing its balance and is approaching self-sufficiency in dairy products. This is already affecting its imports and will have consequences in the future.
“Summarizing these data through the Ukrainian prism, it is obvious that, first of all, we should be concerned about the release of the Russian share of Belarusian exports, which may come to Ukraine. Moreover, all the conditions for this have already been formed, and Belarus in the first quarter has already significantly increased the presence of its products on the Ukrainian market, ”summarizes the analyst of the Association of Milk Producers Vladimir Andriyets.